Coffee is more than just a beverage; it's a daily essential for many. In the United States, approximately 62% of adults consume coffee daily, with the average coffee drinker enjoying just over three cups per day. A study of 2,000 adults in the UK found that Britons consume over 12 million litres of coffee each day, with 53 million cups drunk in the early hours. A significant 54% of coffee drinkers say they can't function without their morning brew, and 47% wouldn't dream of leaving for work without one.

These numbers make it true that for many, the day doesn't truly begin without that essential cup of coffee. However, recent market dynamics suggest that this cherished routine may soon come at a higher cost.

The Surge in Coffee Prices

Since November 2023, Arabica coffee prices have surged by 70% reaching $3.44 per pound in December 2024. In early 2025, coffee futures in New York experienced a significant surge, with prices climbing over 6% to a record high above $4.30 per pound. This marked the 13th consecutive session of record-setting highs for Arabica coffee futures. The surge was largely driven by "panic buying" amid limited coffee availability, exacerbated by concerns over dry and hot weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam's coffee-growing regions, coupled with rising shipping costs, have significantly contributed to this trend.

This has forced traders and roasters to rethink their trade strategies.Farmers in Brazil, the world's top coffee producer, have been hesitant to sell due to these unfavourable conditions. On the other hand, the sharp price increase is squeezing buyers, making it difficult for them to stockpile inventory. Supermarkets and grocery chains havealso been slow to accept price hikes, leaving roasters in a difficult position.

The impact of these price increases is being felt globally. In Australia, for instance, the cost of a single cup of coffee is projected to rise to between $8 and $12 by the end of 2025. Some coffee businesses in the United States are questioning their viability as costs continue to rise and supermarkets are delaying negotiations, resulting in supply gaps and empty shelves in certain markets. The outlook is mixed as a Reuters poll suggests that Arabica prices could drop by 30% later this year, but until then, the industry is bracing for high volatility, cautious purchasing, and potential supply chain disruptions.

Africa's Emerging Role in the Coffee Market

Amid these challenges, Africa's coffee-producing nations are stepping up to meet global demand. In August 2024, exports of all forms of coffee from Africa increased by 29.5%, totalling 1.75 million bags compared to 1.35 million bags in August 2023. Ethiopia was a significant contributor to this growth, with its exports rising by 62.4% during the same period. 

Uganda, another major African coffee producer, has also seen a positive trend. The country's coffee exports are expected to slightly increase from 6.52 million to 6.58 million bags in the 2024/25 marketing year, driven by increased domestic supply. In January, the country's coffee exports surged 83.4% YoY with the country shipping coffee worth $156.5m.

Fluna's Commitment to Bridging the Gap

At Fluna, we recognise the critical role Africa plays in the global coffee supply chain, especially during times of market volatility. Our mission is to bridge the gap between African coffee producers and international buyers, ensuring a stable and high-quality supply of coffee to meet global demand.

As global coffee prices continue to fluctuate due to climatic and market pressures, the integration of African coffee into the global market presents a viable solution to stabilise supply and prices. By supporting African producers and fostering strong partnerships, we can navigate these challenges together.

For buyers seeking reliable sources of high-quality coffee and producers aiming to expand their reach, Fluna is here to facilitate these connections and support sustainable growth in the coffee industry.

You can get started by sending an email to sourcing@fluna.co or visit www.fluna.co.